Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1529…3219 crypto 1336 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (573 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-3%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate16%181W / 967L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day572.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (573 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-61.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1148 -57.7% -61.8% 16% 3% -13.3%
≤30d 1148 -57.7% -61.8% 16% 3% -13.3%
≤90d 1148 -57.7% -61.8% 16% 3% -13.3%
all 1148 -57.7% -61.8% 16% 3% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover572.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.8% 3% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -65.4% 1% -21.6%
15% -68.8% 1% -29.2%
20% -71.8% 1% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses181 / 967
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1148 / 1336
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day572.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1148 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records