Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x1528…b976
sports · 707 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$442 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$894 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized−$894
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses262 / 436
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions9
Markets (closed)698 / 707
History coverage36d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 9 History 698 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$9
14 days−$83
30 days−$736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 53¢ 60¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Virtus.pro 64¢ 52¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 24¢ 22¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 62¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 45¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Leolia Jeanjean 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) Daniel Santos 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Los Angeles Dodgers 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Singapore vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Zhang Zhizhen Zhang 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? No 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Linda Klimovicova Linda Klimovicova 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? No 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Jaqueline Cristian Jaqueline Cristian 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
KHL: Ak Bars Kazan vs. Lokomotiv Yaroslavl Ak Bars Kazan 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Arizona Diamondbacks 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) New York Mets 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +123%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 −$2 -33%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$2 -42%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$1 -32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $16 −$4 -24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 +$3 +33%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$4 +152%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$5 +388%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 −$2 -81%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$5 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$3 -61%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19 −$3 -16%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$1 -27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$6 +119%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $3 −$1 -24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -87%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $14 −$3 -19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 −$2 -39%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $6 −$3 -46%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $5 +$7 +148%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $4 +$8 +200%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $4 +$8 +194%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $6 +$5 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -26%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $4 −$1 -18%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $2 −$1 -55%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$3 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$3 +83%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $2 +$3 +140%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $4 −$1 -30%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 −$1 -31%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $6 −$2 -31%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $3 −$1 -38%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $6 +$6 +90%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $3 −$1 -28%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 −$2 -54%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $6 −$5 -89%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $6 −$3 -40%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $7 −$2 -29%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $5 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% −$650
other 23% −$228
world 0% −$16
crypto 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $3 15m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $3 16m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 74¢ $9 57m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $4 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 64¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 62¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $4 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $4 7h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 65¢ $4 29h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $3 29h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $3 29h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Paraguay 54¢ $3 31h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 54¢ $3 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 27¢ $3 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $3 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $3 33h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 92¢ $5 34h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $5 34h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 3¢ $0 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 15¢ $1 41h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 15¢ $1 41h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $2 41h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $4 41h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $4 41h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $12 41h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 20¢ $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +21.4% +9.8% 39% 39% -5.8%
≤30d 650 -16.9% -24.8% 38% 34% -22.3%
≤90d 698 -15.4% -23.5% 38% 34% -23.4%
all 698 -15.4% -23.5% 38% 34% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 34% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 29% -30.7%
15% -37.5% 24% -37.4%
20% -43.6% 20% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.16 · official $35.16 (match) · 2142 history records