Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

15 0x1526…d77c politics 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$79 (+14%) realized +$80 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$182per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+18.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+30.5%	+18.1%	100%	100%	+17.6%
≤30d	2	+30.5%	+18.1%	100%	100%	+17.6%
≤90d	2	+30.5%	+18.1%	100%	100%	+17.6%
all	2	+30.5%	+18.1%	100%	100%	+17.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+18.1%	100%	+17.6%
10%	+6.8%	100%	+6.4%
15%	-3.5%	0%	-3.9%
20%	-13.0%	0%	-13.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +31% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$36 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$173

Realized+$80

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage9d

Avg bet$182

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	Yes	81¢	80¢	$174	$173	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?	Jun 24	$138	+$38	+27%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Jun 19	$100	+$34	+34%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	BUY Yes	81¢	$176	1h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?	BUY Yes	78¢	$138	10h
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	SELL Yes	80¢	$138	10h
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	BUY Yes	76¢	$133	3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	BUY Yes	74¢	$100	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.30 · official $173.30 (match) · 7 history records