Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
15 0x1525…d1aa other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$2
other 37% +$1
finance 7% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.4% -8.2% 60% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -8.9%
all 24 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×14.44 per $1 lost it wins $14.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage472d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $43 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $4 $0 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $63 +$2 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 31 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Canada wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 18 $14 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $45 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $17 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $22 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $21 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $22 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $22 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.61 · official $39.61 (match) · 80 history records