Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
15 0x1522…70fe sports 347 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,571 (+5%) realized +$2,395 · open +$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%191W / 154L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day49.7pace
Fees−$1,049est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$714now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$7,053
14 days−$5,378
30 days−$883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,496
world 1% −$419
economics 0% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -52.7% -57.2% 21% 16% -41.1%
≤30d 279 -7.2% -16.0% 49% 41% -10.7%
≤90d 345 +3.4% -6.5% 55% 48% -5.7%
all 345 +3.4% -6.5% 55% 48% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 48% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 40% -14.7%
15% -23.6% 32% -23.0%
20% -31.1% 27% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$69 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$714
Realized+$2,395
Unrealized+$176
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses191 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,049
Open positions2
Markets (closed)345 / 347
History coverage46d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day49.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 82¢ 100¢ $449 $544 +$95 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ 100¢ $89 $170 +$81 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $468 +$131 +28%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $91 −$53 -58%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $253 +$54 +21%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$61 +60%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 +$66 +65%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $217 +$90 +42%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $393 −$388 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $173 +$17 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $399 +$77 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $45 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $112 −$7 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $744 +$63 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $92 −$34 -37%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $72 +$13 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $121 −$46 -38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $53 +$47 +89%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $87 +$58 +66%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $287 −$135 -47%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $166 −$6 -4%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $134 −$15 -12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $474 −$64 -13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $511 −$23 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $187 −$116 -62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $145 +$96 +66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $80 −$35 -44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $217 −$57 -26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$38 +72%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BASEMENT BOYS - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $155 +$77 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $63 −$30 -47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $45 −$34 -76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $73 −$5 -6%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $161 −$155 -96%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $53 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 46¢ $47 53m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $32 54m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 56¢ $11 55m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 57¢ $17 56m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 57¢ $6 56m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 57¢ $1 56m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 57¢ $31 56m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 57¢ $8 56m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 57¢ $9 56m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 52¢ $66 58m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 41¢ $47 59m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 41¢ $5 59m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 41¢ $20 59m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 41¢ $4 59m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 41¢ $29 59m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 41¢ $24 59m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 41¢ $3 59m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 41¢ $1 59m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 41¢ $4 59m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 41¢ $4 59m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 37¢ $7 59m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 41¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 38¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 37¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 40¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 40¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 40¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 40¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 36¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 35¢ $38 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $714.32 · official $714.32 (match) · 2528 history records