Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

15 0x151f…5651 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$30 (+5%) realized +$31 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%4W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$68per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-9.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+0.1%	-9.4%	57%	57%	-3.7%
≤30d	7	+0.1%	-9.4%	57%	57%	-3.7%
≤90d	7	+0.1%	-9.4%	57%	57%	-3.7%
all	7	+0.1%	-9.4%	57%	57%	-3.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.4%	57%	-3.7%
10%	-18.1%	57%	-12.9%
15%	-26.0%	57%	-21.3%
20%	-33.2%	43%	-29.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$49 vs −$57 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.16 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$116

Realized+$31

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses4 / 3

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$68

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	53¢	52¢	$118	$116	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 18	$56	−$55	-99%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama?	Jun 18	$92	+$83	+90%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$47	+$45	+97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$70	+$46	+65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$47	+$23	+50%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$119	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	56¢	$56	7h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama?	BUY Yes	52¢	$92	12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$92	12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$47	13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5	BUY Over	67¢	$101	17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5	BUY Over	19¢	$15	27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	60¢	$70	35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$71	35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$47	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.44 · official $116.44 (match) · 12 history records