Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:01:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
15 0x151e…ae88 crypto 1624 markets active 7d ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$960 (-7%) realized −$960 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%829W / 736L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day64.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$719
7 days−$719
14 days−$547
30 days−$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 855 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 54% -15.1%
≤90d 1565 -1.8% -11.2% 53% 53% -13.8%
all 1565 -1.8% -11.2% 53% 53% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 53% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 53% -22.1%
15% -27.4% 53% -29.6%
20% -34.5% 53% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$960
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses829 / 736
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1565 / 1624
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day64.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1565 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records