Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x151d…4c20 crypto 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$44 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%259W / 14L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$51
other 20% −$7
economics 8% −$3
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 26 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 62 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 273 +0.5% -9.0% 95% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses259 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)273 / 274
History coverage247d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $177 $176 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? Jun 23 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 22? Jun 22 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 18? Jun 18 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 18? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 16? Jun 16 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 16? Jun 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? Jun 14 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 13? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 11? Jun 11 $152 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 11? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 June 1-7? Jun 08 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $169 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $173 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $161 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $161 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? May 25 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 23? May 24 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 19? May 19 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on May 17? May 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 17? May 17 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 15 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 14? May 14 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on May 9? May 09 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 29? May 02 $171 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 23? Apr 23 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 20 $171 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 13-19? Apr 20 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 17 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 15? Apr 16 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14? Apr 15 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 14 $170 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $169 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $178 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 26h
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $128 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $53 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $68 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $59 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 10d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $126 12d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $49 12d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $23 14d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $152 15d
Will Solana reach $100 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $174 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $174 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $169 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $170 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $1 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $2 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $173 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $161 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $161 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $161 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $161 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $160 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $160 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $160 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.40 · official $176.31 (match) · 618 history records