Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
15 0x151c…87b2 politics 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,393 (+20%) realized +$1,108 · open +$1,285
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$5,473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$909
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$2,339
politics 23% +$308
other 15% −$131
finance 4% +$120
weather 2% −$27
economics 1% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +125.6% +104.1% 67% 67% +28.2%
≤90d 29 +26.0% +14.0% 38% 34% +4.3%
all 31 +27.6% +15.4% 42% 39% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.4% 39% +5.8%
10% +4.4% 32% -4.4%
15% -5.7% 29% -13.6%
20% -14.9% 19% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$60 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$5,473
Realized+$1,108
Unrealized+$1,285
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions7
Markets (closed)31 / 38
History coverage154d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 59¢ 94¢ $2,153 $3,449 +$1,296 (+60%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 66¢ 60¢ $990 $908 −$82 (-8%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 69¢ 78¢ $690 $785 +$95 (+14%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $222 $224 +$1 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $83 $86 +$4 (+4%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 33¢ $33 $4 −$28 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1,763 +$852 +48%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 1? Jun 02 $70 +$150 +214%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 1? Jun 02 $1 +$9 +643%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 1? Jun 02 $167 +$80 +48%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 27? May 26 $86 −$84 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 27? May 26 $99 −$97 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 20? May 20 $7 +$63 +865%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 20 $14 −$14 -96%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 15? May 20 $79 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 20 $47 +$33 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15? May 15 $40 −$39 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 1 May 14 $18 −$17 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on May 14? May 14 $95 −$3 -3%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? May 12 $131 −$103 -79%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22? May 10 $410 −$405 -99%
Kash Patel out by May 31? May 07 $289 −$163 -57%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 29 $148 −$39 -26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $1,542 +$273 +18%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Apr 19 $284 −$34 -12%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $1,050 +$446 +42%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 11 $133 −$13 -10%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Apr 10 $302 −$4 -1%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Apr 10 $225 +$13 +6%
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $101 +$162 +161%
Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in t Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sanseitō loose any seats in Japanese snap election? Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Mar 27 $22 −$16 -73%
Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election? Mar 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 J Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Ja Feb 09 $325 +$85 +26%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 04 $142 +$108 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $384 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $122 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $223 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $84 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $674 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $469 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $469 17d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 1? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 21d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 1? BUY Yes 31¢ $38 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $52 21d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 1? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 21d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 1? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 21d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 1? BUY Yes 66¢ $98 21d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on May 27? BUY Yes 42¢ $86 26d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 27? BUY Yes 54¢ $99 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 60¢ $420 26d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on May 20? BUY No 10¢ $7 32d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY No $14 32d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15? BUY No 20¢ $4 37d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15? BUY No 30¢ $10 37d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15? BUY No 24¢ $26 37d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May BUY Yes 58¢ $47 37d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 1 BUY Yes 29¢ $18 39d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on May 14? SELL No 93¢ $92 39d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on May 14? BUY No 95¢ $95 39d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? SELL No $6 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,473.40 · official $5,473.40 (match) · 219 history records