Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1519…8dfb sports 316 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,626 (+0%) realized +$4,625 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%315W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$3,724per market
Trades / day82.4pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,050now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$4,762
other 11% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -2.6% -11.9% 97% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 244 -0.6% -10.1% 99% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 317 +2.6% -7.2% 99% 1% -9.4%
all 317 +2.6% -7.2% 99% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 1% -9.4%
10% -16.1% 1% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.2% 1% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$5,994) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1,523 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$2,050
Realized+$4,625
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses315 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)317 / 316
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$3,724
Trades / day82.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Haiti to score first vs. Morocco? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,049 $2,050 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 25 $640 −$640 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 25 $2,060 −$2,405 -117%
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 25 $3,041 +$3 +0%
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 25 $7,992 +$8 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,695 +$5 +0%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $7,992 +$8 +0%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $270 $0 +0%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 23 $3,536 +$8 +0%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $6,483 +$6 +0%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5,924 +$6 +0%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $2,706 +$3 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7,992 +$8 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,218 +$2 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $927 +$1 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2,885 +$3 +0%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5 Jun 23 $79 $0 +0%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 Jun 23 $200 $0 +0%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 Jun 23 $79 $0 +0%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5 Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7,992 +$8 +0%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $4,995 +$5 +0%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7,992 +$8 +0%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $0 $0 +1%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 22 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Hapoel Galil Elyon vs. Elitzur Netanya Jun 22 $311 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,014 +$1 +0%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $269 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1,116 +$1 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $15,984 +$16 +0%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 22 $2,939 +$3 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $7,891 +$8 +0%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $2,353 +$2 +0%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 Jun 21 $193 +$2 +1%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5 Jun 21 $467 +$6 +1%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 21 $435 $0 +0%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $997 +$3 +0%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 21 $1,898 +$2 +0%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $7,992 +$8 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7,992 +$8 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $7,992 +$8 +0%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2,503 +$3 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $3,761 +$4 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $7,992 +$8 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $7,992 +$8 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $282 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $64 $0 +0%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,695 36m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $44 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $528 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $6 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $3 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $29 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $67 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $447 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $15 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $61 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $178 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $20 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $22 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $27 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $178 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $999 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $18 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $25 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $161 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $161 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $905 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $20 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $15 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $22 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $27 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $178 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,050.42 · official $2,050.42 (match) · 3500 history records