Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1519…1d39 politics 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate11%9W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$3
other 36% −$3
sports 14% −$1
culture 6% $0
world 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 75% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 80% 0% -9.5%
all 80 -2.8% -12.0% 11% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 1% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses9 / 71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage395d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 23 $61 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $58 $0 -0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $59 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $181 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $59 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 22 $59 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 13 $61 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $59 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $122 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 30 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 25 $58 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 17 $1 $0 -33%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $124 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $62 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $131 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $59 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $61 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 41d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 114d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 130d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 141d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 143d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $58 144d
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 146d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $60 148d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $60 150d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $59 150d
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $59 153d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 153d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $60 155d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $59 156d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $59 158d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 158d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 164d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 165d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 166d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $59 167d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $59 168d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 169d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $61 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.54 · official $60.54 (match) · 400 history records