Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1518…fc22 crypto 720 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$680 (+1%) realized +$680 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate94%680W / 40L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$107
14 days+$107
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$685
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 4% -7.2%
≤30d 47 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 4% -7.2%
≤90d 426 -0.4% -9.9% 94% 5% -9.0%
all 720 +0.7% -8.9% 94% 7% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 7% -8.6%
10% -17.6% 1% -17.3%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$58 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$680
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses680 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)720 / 720
History coverage161d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 720 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Jun 22 $300 +$7 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET Jun 22 $200 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $201 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Jun 22 $501 +$8 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$6 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET Jun 21 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $181 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $90 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET Jun 20 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $92 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $90 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $60 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$3 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $90 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $90 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$7 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $79 +$6 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 16 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $101 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $91 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $23 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $77 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2539 history records