Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1517…e46c other 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%21W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$31
politics 25% −$10
sports 13% −$5
crypto 9% −$3
world 7% −$5
culture 5% −$5
economics 4% −$3
finance 2% −$4
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 62 -0.8% -10.2% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 117 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 142 -0.5% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses21 / 121
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage106d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $110 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 15 $59 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $60 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $94 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $102 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $45 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $37 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $138 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $102 −$2 -2%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -3%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $104 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $43 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $493 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $158 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $186 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 03 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $47 $0 -1%
Will Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $212 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $67 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $58 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $213 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $140 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $194 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $186 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 53m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $50 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $51 7h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $61 8h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $61 16h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $7 16h
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $7 22h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $26 22h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $26 28h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 29h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 37h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $42 37h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $43 42h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $54 42h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $50 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $59 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $59 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $24 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $24 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $60 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $60 3d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $60 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $61 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 91¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.19 · official $51.19 (match) · 481 history records