Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:33:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x1516…e90c weather 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+4%) realized +$118 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate97%33W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% +$66
other 10% −$39
culture 2% −$11
sports 1% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 34 +6.1% -4.0% 97% 9% -5.7%
all 34 +6.1% -4.0% 97% 9% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 9% -5.7%
10% -13.2% 3% -14.7%
15% -21.6% 3% -23.0%
20% -29.3% 3% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×15.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×519.2 per $1 lost it wins $519.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$118
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses33 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)34 / 44
History coverage58d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade confirmed relationship by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Future feature Kendrick Lamar on "The Real Me"? No 94¢ 56¢ $63 $38 −$25 (-40%)
Will Future release an album in 2026? Yes 97¢ 69¢ $39 $28 −$11 (-29%)
Will Future feature EsDeeKid on "The Real Me"? No 94¢ 56¢ $33 $20 −$13 (-40%)
Will Valve add first CS2 operation by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will USD reach 19,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will USD fall to 17,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will USD fall to 16,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will USD fall to 16,500 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? No 99¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 27°C or below on May 18? May 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on May 18? May 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C or below on May 20? May 20 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 17? May 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C or higher on May 16? May 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 15? May 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 16? May 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C on May 14? May 14 $102 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C on May 13? May 13 $167 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 38°C or higher on May 15? May 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 13? May 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C on May 12? May 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 11? May 11 $78 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 11? May 11 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 10? May 10 $63 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 10? May 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C on May 9? May 09 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 38°C or higher on May 9? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C on May 8? May 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 7? May 07 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C on May 7? May 07 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C on May 6? May 06 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 6? May 06 $12 +$13 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 5? May 05 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 5? May 05 $128 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 4? May 04 $178 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 3? May 03 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 3? May 03 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 3? May 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 2? May 03 $29 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 2? May 02 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on April 30? Apr 30 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 29? Apr 30 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Future feature Kendrick Lamar on "The Real Me"? BUY No 94¢ $11 1h
Will Future release an album in 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $39 1h
Will Future feature Kendrick Lamar on "The Real Me"? BUY No 94¢ $52 1h
Will Future feature EsDeeKid on "The Real Me"? BUY No 94¢ $34 1h
Will Valve add first CS2 operation by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 5h
Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade confirmed relationship by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 5h
Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade confirmed relationship by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 5h
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2 BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will USD fall to 17,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will USD fall to 16,500 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will USD fall to 16,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will USD reach 19,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C or below on May 20? BUY No 98¢ $12 37d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C or below on May 20? BUY No 99¢ $8 37d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C or below on May 20? BUY No 99¢ $50 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on May 18? BUY No 98¢ $10 41d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on May 18? BUY No 98¢ $10 41d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on May 18? BUY No 99¢ $28 41d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 27°C or below on May 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 41d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on May 18? BUY No 99¢ $12 41d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 17? BUY No 99¢ $59 41d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C or higher on May 16? BUY No 99¢ $40 42d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 16? SELL No 99¢ $59 42d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C or higher on May 16? BUY No 99¢ $30 42d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 16? BUY No 99¢ $59 42d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C or higher on May 16? BUY No 99¢ $8 42d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C or higher on May 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 43d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C or higher on May 16? BUY No 99¢ $17 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.41 · official $188.42 (match) · 148 history records