Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1514…b890 crypto 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%54W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$37
14 days+$38
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$222
other 19% +$9
world 4% −$10
sports 4% +$100
politics 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 23% +2.7%
≤30d 181 -7.8% -16.5% 21% 17% -14.0%
≤90d 231 -11.8% -20.2% 23% 19% -21.8%
all 245 -13.1% -21.4% 22% 19% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 19% -22.6%
10% -28.9% 17% -30.0%
15% -35.7% 14% -36.8%
20% -42.0% 13% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses54 / 191
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 250
History coverage231d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -19%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $15 +$18 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -33%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $12 −$9 -77%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 +$3 +281%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 +$11 +1026%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $17 −$7 -40%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -104%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$5 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$20 +618%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$44 +703%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 14¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.75 (match) · 841 history records