Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
15 0x1513…831a sports 1000 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$914 (-1%) realized −$914 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%543W / 455L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$865est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$698
14 days−$1,189
30 days−$3,871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$555
other 11% +$806
crypto 11% −$1,880
politics 7% −$1,604
world 2% +$681
economics 2% −$619
culture 0% +$182
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +10.9% +0.3% 57% 55% -16.6%
≤30d 189 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 48% -22.0%
≤90d 830 -6.0% -14.9% 55% 53% -9.5%
all 998 -5.0% -14.0% 54% 52% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 52% -10.6%
10% -22.3% 47% -19.2%
15% -29.8% 38% -27.0%
20% -36.7% 28% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$86 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$914
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses543 / 455
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$865
Open positions2
Markets (closed)998 / 1000
History coverage288d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 998 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals No 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 +$11 +172%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$7 +145%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$24 +473%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$6 +38%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$10 +197%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$6 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$11 +91%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $9 +$2 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +237%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$13 +262%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$26 +510%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$4 +49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $16 +$9 +54%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$7 +130%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $4 +$3 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +88%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 +$2 +50%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $212 −$211 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $143 +$69 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$42 +42%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $80 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $97 +$114 +118%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $83 −$82 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$26 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 57¢ $10 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $17 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $6 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $10 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE $1 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 6h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $3 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $5 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 19¢ $5 10h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 24h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 89¢ $20 27h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $29 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $21 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $5 31h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $5 37h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 26¢ $5 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $21 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 58¢ $1 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $2 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $5 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 100¢ $11 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $4 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.59 · official $19.59 (match) · 2721 history records