Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1512…f3ea crypto 410 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$932 (+3%) realized +$932 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%210W / 200L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$932
other 1% −$163
sports 0% +$7
weather 0% −$33
finance 0% +$16
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -10.9% -19.3% 52% 52% -5.4%
≤30d 43 -10.0% -18.6% 53% 53% -5.2%
≤90d 44 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 55% -3.4%
all 410 -6.1% -15.1% 51% 47% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 47% -7.0%
10% -23.2% 45% -15.9%
15% -30.6% 42% -24.1%
20% -37.4% 41% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$57 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$932
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses210 / 200
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)410 / 410
History coverage162d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 410 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$16 +77%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$7 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? May 31 $1 $0 +27%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Apr 03 $1 +$3 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $6 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 34h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1849 history records