Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x1512…aa5e crypto 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate100%83W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9
other 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 25 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 4% -9.3%
all 83 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses83 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage245d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 1? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $121 $121 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 27? Jun 29 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? Jun 25 $117 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 19 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? Jun 12 $117 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 in May? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? Jun 07 $3 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 07 $4 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? Jun 07 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 18? May 22 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 07 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 03 $3 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30? May 03 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27? May 03 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? Apr 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 22 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? Apr 15 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 08 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $118 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 31? Apr 02 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 25? Mar 25 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? Mar 22 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 19 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 11? Mar 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? Mar 11 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 4? Mar 06 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Mar 03 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 27 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 23 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 21 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 1 Feb 13 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on February 11? Feb 12 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 3? Feb 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? Feb 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? Feb 02 $3 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $112 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on July 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $121 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $119 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $117 9d
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $125 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $117 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $3 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $114 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $115 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $112 43d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? BUY No 98¢ $3 46d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $117 53d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $300 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 55d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $4 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $121 57d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $112 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $109 68d
Will gas hit (Low) $3.85 by April 30? BUY No 87¢ $6 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $115 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 78d
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? BUY No 98¢ $3 80d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 99¢ $4 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $118 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $122 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $118 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $120 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $115 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $118 95d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $119 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $116 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.85 · official $126.85 (match) · 170 history records