Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1510…fe91 sports 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,105 (-2%) realized −$5,105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate80%172W / 43L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$987per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$456est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,518
7 days−$3,579
14 days−$2,812
30 days−$4,734
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$2,099
other 43% −$2,050
world 0% −$608
crypto 0% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -9.2% -17.9% 71% 36% -19.8%
≤30d 124 -3.4% -12.6% 77% 31% -13.4%
≤90d 215 -2.7% -11.9% 80% 29% -10.6%
all 215 -2.7% -11.9% 80% 29% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 29% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 9% -19.2%
15% -28.1% 5% -27.0%
20% -35.1% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$1,251) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$520 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$375
Realized−$5,105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses172 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$456
Open positions1
Markets (closed)215 / 216
History coverage47d
Avg bet$987
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $375 $375 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $312 +$66 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $524 +$285 +54%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $491 +$30 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $617 −$608 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $552 +$66 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $418 +$135 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $366 +$49 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,853 −$1,486 -80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,908 −$54 -3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $571 −$570 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $422 −$420 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $362 +$61 +17%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $699 −$337 -48%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $426 +$67 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,254 +$171 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $403 −$256 -64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $501 +$42 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $702 +$59 +8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $995 +$12 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 14 $401 +$20 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $702 +$52 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,218 +$107 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,025 +$188 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $705 +$323 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $813 −$810 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $766 +$47 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $430 +$9 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $403 −$400 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $303 +$125 +41%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $272 +$66 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $892 +$70 +8%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $811 +$88 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $752 +$54 +7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $687 +$69 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,134 −$1,129 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $1,121 +$9 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,052 +$67 +6%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1,031 +$18 +2%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $503 −$135 -27%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1,004 +$171 +17%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,003 −$6 -1%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $954 +$162 +17%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $994 −$45 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $603 +$111 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 09 $902 +$69 +8%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $921 +$18 +2%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $823 +$100 +12%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $791 +$32 +4%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $693 +$95 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $378 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $379 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $312 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $809 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $524 3h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $491 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $617 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $617 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $552 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $553 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $418 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $415 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $366 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $367 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $678 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,175 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 74¢ $1,854 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,908 40h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $571 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $422 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $423 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 85¢ $362 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 36¢ $362 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $699 2d
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $493 2d
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY No 86¢ $426 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,424 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $1,254 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 20¢ $146 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $543 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.00 · official $375.00 (match) · 454 history records