Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:14:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1510…1232 other 89 markets active 5d ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-36%) realized −$24 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$35
world 12% −$11
sports 6% +$11
crypto 3% −$2
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-59.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.8% +4.8% 8% 8% -35.5%
≤30d 15 -7.3% -16.2% 7% 7% -46.2%
≤90d 15 -7.3% -16.2% 7% 7% -46.2%
all 31 -55.2% -59.4% 3% 3% -67.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.4% 3% -67.7%
10% -63.3% 3% -70.8%
15% -66.9% 3% -73.6%
20% -70.1% 3% -76.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×10.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions58
Markets (closed)31 / 89
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+125%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1290%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in January 2026? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Space FDV above $120M one day after launch? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 21 Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.42 · official $47.43 (match) · 110 history records