Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x150d…e174 crypto 611 markets active 5h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$785 (-1%) realized −$866 · open +$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate82%496W / 106L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$436
14 days−$395
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$1,153
sports 41% +$468
other 3% +$47
finance 2% −$330
politics 1% +$84
world 1% +$118
culture 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -71.9% -74.6% 18% 18% -32.8%
≤30d 32 -30.3% -36.9% 50% 25% -9.5%
≤90d 248 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 22% -11.9%
all 602 -2.9% -12.2% 82% 24% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 24% -10.5%
10% -20.6% 13% -19.1%
15% -28.2% 7% -26.9%
20% -35.3% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$43 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized−$866
Unrealized+$81
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses496 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions8
Markets (closed)602 / 611
History coverage138d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 602 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 82¢ 100¢ $300 $365 +$65 (+22%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+59%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+83%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Bangladesh 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $401 +$52 +13%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $738 −$54 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 14 $524 −$443 -85%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complete Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$1 -1%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $423 +$107 +25%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $31 +$8 +27%
Will England win? Jun 08 $316 +$20 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 +$13 +124%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $180 +$41 +23%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $511 +$33 +6%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $553 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 28 $616 +$22 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $300 +$66 +22%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $501 +$49 +10%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $521 +$32 +6%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $401 +$38 +10%
Will Pakistan win? May 20 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Bangladesh win? May 20 $626 +$17 +3%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $741 −$32 -4%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $674 +$97 +14%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $151 +$17 +11%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $711 +$35 +5%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $602 +$61 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $1,231 +$33 +3%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $316 +$29 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 14 $40 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Bangladesh win? May 12 $10 +$12 +122%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $30 +$4 +14%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $20 +$5 +26%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $1,526 +$5 +0%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $30 +$4 +14%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $830 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 07 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 7¢ $5 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 82¢ $271 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 81¢ $30 5h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $5 11h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 84¢ $100 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 86¢ $100 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 92¢ $200 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $2 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 19¢ $10 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 20¢ $20 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 68¢ $424 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 95¢ $100 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 2¢ $1 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 95¢ $501 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 71¢ $53 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 89¢ $25 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 70¢ $20 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 80¢ $60 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 25¢ $5 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 50¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 22¢ $11 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $35 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 34¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $99 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 97¢ $530 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 60¢ $20 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 69¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.94 · official $432.94 (match) · 1902 history records