Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x150c…add3 sports 383 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,170 (+1%) realized +$1,180 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate76%291W / 90L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$443per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$303
14 days+$387
30 days−$5,646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$2,473
crypto 31% −$5,206
other 22% +$2,594
finance 4% +$829
politics 0% +$29
world 0% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +9.2% -1.2% 73% 60% -3.6%
≤30d 116 +1.7% -8.0% 72% 64% -23.0%
≤90d 286 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 64% -13.1%
all 381 +1.5% -8.2% 76% 60% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 60% -9.1%
10% -16.9% 41% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 18% -25.7%
20% -32.3% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$152 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$1,180
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses291 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions2
Markets (closed)381 / 383
History coverage173d
Avg bet$443
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Under 92¢ 86¢ $90 $84 −$6 (-7%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 72¢ 66¢ $45 $41 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $140 +$17 +12%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $45 +$13 +29%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $95 +$10 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $46 −$46 -99%
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 25 $90 +$17 +18%
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Inaki Montes Jun 25 $23 +$12 +53%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Dali Blanch Jun 25 $46 −$45 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $45 +$13 +28%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $45 +$6 +14%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $90 +$9 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $75 +$28 +38%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $85 +$12 +14%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 24 $85 +$19 +23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Plovdiv: Lorenzo Angelini vs Dali Blanch Jun 24 $40 +$8 +20%
ITF Bakio: Noah Lopez Cherubino vs Edward Winter Jun 24 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $63 +$29 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$72 +712%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $80 +$7 +8%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $18 −$17 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Stefan Haita Jun 23 $40 +$11 +27%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $816 +$69 +8%
Plovdiv: Alexander Vasilev vs Niels Visker Jun 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza Jun 23 $80 +$14 +17%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $40 +$14 +36%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $41 −$3 -6%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $755 +$55 +7%
ITF Bakio: Diego Dedura vs Alexandre Reco Jun 22 $81 +$21 +26%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan Jun 22 $40 +$15 +38%
Plovdiv: Yanaki Milev vs Ognjen Milic Jun 22 $80 +$9 +11%
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $20 +$9 +44%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $40 +$13 +32%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henri Squire vs Michael Zheng Jun 22 $80 +$12 +15%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Federico Cina Jun 22 $80 +$6 +7%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $20 −$7 -33%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $40 −$40 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $46 +$27 +60%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $80 +$15 +18%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $40 +$24 +60%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $713 +$94 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 20 $35 −$35 -99%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $18 +$8 +46%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $75 +$6 +8%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $18 −$17 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$9 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $45 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $90 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $45 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $95 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $45 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $95 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 81¢ $46 4h
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 84¢ $90 10h
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Dali Blanch BUY Dali Blanch 61¢ $46 15h
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Inaki Montes BUY Inaki Montes 65¢ $23 15h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $45 24h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $90 24h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $45 24h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $85 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $75 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 29h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Draper 81¢ $85 33h
Plovdiv: Lorenzo Angelini vs Dali Blanch BUY Dali Blanch 83¢ $40 36h
ITF Bakio: Noah Lopez Cherubino vs Edward Winter BUY Edward Winter 87¢ $40 40h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $63 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 2d
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $80 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $70 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $816 2d
Plovdiv: Alexander Vasilev vs Niels Visker BUY Alexander Vasilev 64¢ $20 2d
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Stefan Haita BUY Felix Balshaw 78¢ $40 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro SELL Eva Lys 37¢ $38 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 73¢ $40 2d
Targu Mures: Elmer Moeller vs Luca Potenza BUY Elmer Moeller 85¢ $80 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.75 · official $123.19 · 835 history records