Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x150c…8813
other · 34 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$3 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage460d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $72 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $38 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -19%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Jun 24 $13 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Los Angeles Rams? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $26 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Starmer out before July? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 08 $13 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 06 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the n Apr 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 24 $11 $0 +4%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on April 19? Apr 22 $9 $0 +4%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 18 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $12 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 23 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +4%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 12 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% +$1
world 34% +$1
politics 14% +$1
crypto 7% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $32 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 4h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 6h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $5 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $27 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $4 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $11 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $9 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $12 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $36 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $38 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $19 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $8 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $21 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $6 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 SELL No 100¢ $13 353d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY No 98¢ $2 380d
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 BUY No 99¢ $13 394d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $13 394d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $13 394d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? SELL No 97¢ $13 394d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? BUY No 98¢ $13 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 5 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 5 -3.3% -12.5% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 33 +0.1% -9.4% 52% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -8.9%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.27 · official $31.27 (match) · 88 history records