Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x150b…6c0c other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$53 (+7%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$57
other 19% +$4
crypto 6% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.4% -9.1% 73% 36% -2.4%
≤30d 11 +0.4% -9.1% 73% 36% -2.4%
≤90d 11 +0.4% -9.1% 73% 36% -2.4%
all 14 -3.6% -12.8% 71% 43% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 43% -4.5%
10% -21.1% 29% -13.7%
15% -28.7% 14% -22.0%
20% -35.7% 14% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage169d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $200 +$17 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Dec 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Dec 28 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 28 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $36 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $73 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $72 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $10 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 6h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $215 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 49¢ $9 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $200 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $217 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 92¢ $200 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $10 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $23 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 168d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $13 168d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 168d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $11 168d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records