Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:19:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
15 0x1509…3eb7 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$223 (-1%) realized −$223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$950per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$422
7 days+$692
14 days−$808
30 days−$808
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$256
other 24% −$1,047
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 40% -6.5%
≤30d 25 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 36% -12.6%
≤90d 25 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 36% -12.6%
all 25 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 36% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 36% -12.6%
10% -30.8% 20% -21.0%
15% -37.5% 12% -28.6%
20% -43.6% 4% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,598) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$251 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage11d
Avg bet$950
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2,204 −$347 -16%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2,708 −$304 -11%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $567 −$254 -45%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $497 −$95 -19%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $2,691 +$497 +18%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2,538 +$154 +6%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,641 +$219 +13%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,002 −$292 -29%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $349 −$4 -1%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1,949 +$666 +34%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $763 −$306 -40%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $301 +$29 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $600 +$274 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,008 +$344 +34%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $257 −$129 -50%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $98 −$17 -18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $499 +$261 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $602 +$87 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,423 −$1,393 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $337 −$270 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$16 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,598 +$181 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $1,856 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,204 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 66¢ $2,404 23h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2,708 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $313 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 57¢ $401 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $497 25h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $567 25h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $2,691 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,693 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $2,538 30h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $44 47h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $378 47h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 74¢ $346 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 56¢ $666 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1,641 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $349 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $624 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,947 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 36¢ $456 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $505 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $258 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $330 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $301 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $600 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,008 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $129 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 58¢ $81 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $98 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records