Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
15 0x1507…e175 sports 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$3,655 (+14%) realized +$3,657 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate58%52W / 38L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$263est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$761
7 days−$271
14 days−$571
30 days−$573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$2,052
politics 13% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +126.1% +104.6% 33% 25% -42.5%
≤30d 15 +97.5% +78.7% 33% 27% -50.6%
≤90d 67 +34.2% +21.4% 54% 43% -4.6%
all 90 +31.0% +18.6% 58% 43% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.6% 43% -2.8%
10% +7.2% 37% -12.1%
15% -3.1% 30% -20.6%
20% -12.6% 24% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +41% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$140 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$3,657
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses52 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$263
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage112d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card) Hyder Amil 33¢ 32¢ $98 $96 −$1 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 87¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $499 −$197 -39%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $350 −$48 -14%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $800 −$195 -24%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $1,000 −$291 -29%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $200 −$196 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $200 +$168 +84%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $307 +$393 +128%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,123 +$498 +44%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $410 −$400 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $306 −$300 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $1 +$2 +149%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 18 $712 +$9 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 18 $206 −$206 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $103 +$265 +258%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $3,321 $0 -0%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 13 $716 −$91 -13%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 13 $308 +$472 +153%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr May 10 $500 −$500 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) May 10 $300 −$300 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julia Polastri vs. Talita Alencar (Women's Strawweigh May 10 $298 −$298 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $409 +$132 +32%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $203 −$203 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 10 $219 −$204 -93%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $303 −$189 -62%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early May 10 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) May 10 $398 +$54 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main May 10 $199 −$199 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M May 10 $398 −$117 -29%
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $456 −$109 -24%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweig May 10 $249 −$65 -26%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $103 −$103 -100%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car May 10 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Karine Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (Women's Flywei May 10 $348 −$246 -71%
Ducks vs. Flames May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $398 +$61 +15%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $612 +$570 +93%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $306 +$278 +91%
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C May 04 $101 +$3 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 04 $102 +$63 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 04 $306 +$39 +13%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $203 +$132 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 02 $304 +$108 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant Apr 25 $199 +$74 +37%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 19 $199 +$198 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 19 $199 +$286 +144%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Valentin vs. Julien LeBlanc (Middleweight, Mai Apr 18 $199 +$17 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 33¢ $100 0m
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main SELL Vinicius Oliveira 99¢ $627 38m
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 36¢ $100 46m
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 71¢ $199 47m
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 54¢ $200 47m
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kevin Borjas 99¢ $7 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 11¢ $50 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kevin Borjas 62¢ $554 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 30¢ $100 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 33¢ $200 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh SELL Bia Mesquita 99¢ $943 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 58¢ $200 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 64¢ $400 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Melissa Mullins 32¢ $200 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Mitch Raposo 99¢ $1,218 2h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 19¢ $100 2h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 11¢ $100 2h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 77¢ $200 2h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 71¢ $200 2h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 17¢ $100 2h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 42¢ $300 2h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 48¢ $200 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre SELL Shane Collins 100¢ $368 3h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 53¢ $200 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 22¢ $3 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $448 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 46¢ $787 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 31¢ $103 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 22¢ $103 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 28¢ $103 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.91 · official $105.91 (match) · 304 history records