Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1506…3ae5 other 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21,292 (-6%) realized −$21,286 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,889per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$537est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$58,333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10,835
14 days−$7,075
30 days−$7,171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$11,518
sports 31% −$6,039
crypto 0% −$1,095
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -65.3% -68.6% 0% 0% -27.9%
≤30d 29 -20.3% -27.9% 24% 21% -12.1%
≤90d 30 -23.0% -30.3% 23% 20% -13.9%
all 41 -21.1% -28.6% 27% 22% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.6% 22% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.5% 20% -25.7%
15% -41.7% 20% -32.9%
20% -47.4% 15% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$3,563) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,773 vs −$1,272 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$58,333
Realized−$21,286
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$537
Open positions6
Markets (closed)41 / 48
History coverage227d
Avg bet$6,889
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $17,000 $16,774 −$226 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $13,000 $12,953 −$47 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $9,584 $9,544 −$40 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $8,000 $8,108 +$108 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $7,000 $7,233 +$233 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3,755 $3,720 −$35 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37,535 −$6,039 -16%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $511 −$190 -37%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $512 −$500 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20,043 −$3,254 -16%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $813 −$52 -6%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $512 −$500 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $9,084 −$299 -3%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1,593 −$1,553 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $513 −$500 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$481 +48%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $513 −$331 -64%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $513 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $513 −$500 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,991 −$1,972 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR I Jun 15 $512 −$512 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $513 −$500 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $411 +$3,577 +870%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $515 +$287 +56%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1,010 +$370 +37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,015 +$944 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $3,060 +$5,924 +194%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51,787 +$2,867 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,343 −$943 -70%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $302 −$300 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $99 −$95 -96%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 10 $2,174 −$2,148 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $1,416 +$1,359 +96%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 05 $3,951 −$2,535 -64%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 04 $3,563 +$385 +11%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 02 $3,708 −$142 -4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $6,355 −$2,647 -42%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $277 −$277 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 31 $6,011 +$621 +10%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 30 $8,786 −$2,775 -32%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $34,913 −$5,983 -17%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $5,000 −$21 -0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $4,968 +$2,689 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $9,829 21m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,805 49m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2,057 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8,214 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $7,193 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $13,336 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $17,414 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $7,481 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $7,995 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $11,430 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $16,723 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $122 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2,049 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 19¢ $320 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 22¢ $3,357 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $511 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $10,108 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 78¢ $16,789 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $20,043 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $17,679 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5,034 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 68¢ $8,784 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 16¢ $723 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $9,084 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $9,799 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $807 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58,332.71 · official $58,332.71 (match) · 152 history records