Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
15 0x1506…e79e sports 615 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$133 (+4%) realized +$94 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%242W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day43.9pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$132
14 days+$160
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$174
other 8% +$9
crypto 0% +$4
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 299 -7.8% -16.6% 44% 44% -5.5%
≤30d 576 -11.4% -19.9% 42% 42% -5.9%
≤90d 576 -11.4% -19.9% 42% 42% -5.9%
all 576 -11.4% -19.9% 42% 42% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 42% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 42% -14.9%
15% -34.5% 40% -23.1%
20% -41.0% 35% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses242 / 334
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions33
Markets (closed)576 / 615
History coverage15d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day43.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 576 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 60¢ 99¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+66%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 100¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+96%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 55¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 80¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+68%)
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 65¢ 64¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 28¢ 21¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 62¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 38¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 83¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 39¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 68¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 332 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 29 $2 +$4 +216%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $1 +$8 +786%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 29 $25 +$29 +114%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $30 +$20 +65%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $20 +$19 +93%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $31 +$38 +124%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 28 $20 +$15 +76%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $20 +$7 +32%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $30 −$30 -99%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $10 +$3 +30%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $1 +$1 +140%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 28 $2 +$6 +291%
Algeria to win the second half? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $5 +$3 +55%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 28 $5 +$1 +20%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Second half draw? Jun 28 $1 +$2 +152%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +140%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 +$3 +291%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 28 $20 +$17 +86%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $1 +$1 +105%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $5 +$13 +250%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $15 +$7 +46%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $30 −$30 -99%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $1 +$6 +596%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $20 +$22 +107%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 27 $25 +$24 +93%
Panama vs. England: Team to Take First Corner Jun 27 $5 +$1 +24%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 $0 +32%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Second half draw? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +134%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 27 $10 +$11 +105%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 27 $1 +$4 +344%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1 +$2 +158%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1 +$2 +152%
Panama vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $30 +$14 +48%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $5 +$6 +119%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 27 $20 +$15 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 4h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $41 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $20 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $20 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $10 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Japan to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 6h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $10 36h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $30 36h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $10 36h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 36h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 36h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $20 36h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 36h
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 36h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 36h
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 36h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.97 · official $220.95 (match) · 907 history records