Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1505…8db3 crypto 271 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$403 (-0%) realized −$403 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%44W / 230L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day54.8pace
Fees−$291est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$1,268
crypto 35% −$2,136
other 26% −$1,483
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +160.2% +135.4% 30% 22% -26.0%
≤30d 271 +25.8% +13.8% 16% 12% -18.5%
≤90d 274 +25.6% +13.6% 16% 12% -18.2%
all 274 +25.6% +13.6% 16% 12% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.6% 12% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here +2.7% 8% -26.1%
15% -7.2% 5% -33.2%
20% -16.3% 4% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +32% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$73 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$403
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses44 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$291
Open positions0
Markets (closed)274 / 271
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$334
Trades / day54.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 274 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 16 $0 −$99 -20578%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 16 $0 −$84 -19418%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 16 $0 −$133 -34354%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,514 −$400 -16%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,767 +$237 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,702 −$545 -32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,075 −$463 -15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,427 −$47 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $586 +$88 +15%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $267 +$1 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $771 −$367 -48%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $195 +$18 +9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,578 −$81 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $693 −$335 -48%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $965 +$143 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3,031 −$121 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,365 +$659 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $674 +$250 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $719 +$26 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $362 −$46 -13%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $436 −$218 -50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $676 +$358 +53%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $644 −$259 -40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,768 −$384 -22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $526 −$65 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 12 $109 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,279 −$276 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $200 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,401 +$552 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $325 −$112 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $200 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1,563 −$182 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 08 $200 −$50 -25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $357 −$128 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6AM ET Jun 08 $305 −$103 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 16¢ $0 52m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 53m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $15 53m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 53m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $109 54m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 16¢ $39 54m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 17¢ $9 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $95 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $199 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $47 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 19¢ $0 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 19¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $37 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $7 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $74 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $36 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $191 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $13 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $204 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $95 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 56¢ $60 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 56¢ $60 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.83 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records