Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1505…957d world 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$5
other 8% −$9
politics 6% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 0% -8.5%
all 33 -2.9% -12.2% 42% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -10.2%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage452d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $37 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $75 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $41 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $35 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $4 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 11? May 11 $10 $0 -3%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Jets draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 19 $9 $0 -5%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $40 20m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $44 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $44 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $20 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $18 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $15 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $22 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $39 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $29 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $9 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $43 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $43 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $15 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $24 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $38 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $42 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $41 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $3 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $34 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $5 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.09 · official $40.09 (match) · 100 history records