Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x1504…0ff7
crypto · 34 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$189 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$189 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses21 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage587d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Yes 90¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ostrava: Zdenek Kolar vs Jonas Forejtek Jonas Forejtek 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $183 −$22 -12%
Ostrava: Zdenek Kolar vs Jonas Forejtek Apr 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 09 $50 +$46 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 09 $70 +$62 +89%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 09 $70 +$60 +85%
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 09 $75 −$74 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 09 $50 +$45 +89%
XRP Up or Down - February 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 09 $80 +$74 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 09 $75 +$68 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 09 $75 −$74 -98%
Will it Snow in New York City this weekend (January 24 - 26)? Feb 09 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 09 $80 −$79 -98%
Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026? Jan 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will federal employees receive back pay after the government shutdown? Dec 04 $23 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 04 $108 +$104 +96%
Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the highest ranked song from Taylor Swif Nov 24 $23 $0 +0%
Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor? Oct 07 $23 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025? Sep 22 $22 +$1 +3%
Taylor Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" debuts at #1? Sep 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Olympique Lyon play in Ligue 1? Aug 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander finish third in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democr Jul 11 $13 $0 -0%
Another SpaceX Dragon x NASA mission to the ISS in 2025? Jul 02 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? Jun 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 20 $15 $0 +3%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Grizzlies (To Advance) May 05 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 13 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 19 $1,326 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $7 +$5 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 57% −$13
crypto 35% +$205
other 4% +$1
sports 3% −$2
culture 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $53 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $44 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $19 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 13h
Ostrava: Zdenek Kolar vs Jonas Forejtek BUY Jonas Forejtek 35¢ $3 44d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 90¢ $12 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $96 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 124d
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $75 124d
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 124d
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $38 124d
Solana Up or Down - February 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $88 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -89.9% -90.9% 0% 0% -90.9%
≤30d 1 -89.9% -90.9% 0% 0% -90.9%
≤90d 3 -96.6% -97.0% 0% 0% -94.3%
all 33 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 24% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 24% -2.6%
10% -19.9% 24% -11.9%
15% -27.7% 24% -20.4%
20% -34.8% 24% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $2.97 (match) · 114 history records