Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x1502…922e weather 1492 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$676 (-1%) realized −$673 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate66%971W / 502L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$179
14 days−$75
30 days−$1,176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$592
other 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +2.8% -6.9% 77% 10% -6.4%
≤30d 863 -37.7% -43.6% 45% 9% -13.8%
≤90d 1473 -3.1% -12.3% 66% 12% -10.8%
all 1473 -3.1% -12.3% 66% 12% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 12% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 9% -19.3%
15% -28.4% 8% -27.1%
20% -35.4% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$1,333
Realized−$673
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses971 / 502
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1473 / 1492
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1473 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? No 96¢ 100¢ $149 $156 +$6 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 26? No 97¢ 99¢ $149 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 25? No 98¢ 100¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 26? No 97¢ 99¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 26? No 98¢ 96¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? No 96¢ 90¢ $148 $139 −$9 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25? No 98¢ 100¢ $83 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 27? No 98¢ 97¢ $74 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 25? No 97¢ 99¢ $54 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 25? No 97¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 26? No 97¢ 99¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 26? No 98¢ 97¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 25? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 26? No 98¢ 97¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? No 39¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 25? No 97¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $150 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $68 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 24 $86 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $142 +$16 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $150 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $143 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 24? Jun 22 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 21? Jun 22 $74 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Jun 22 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $197 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $74 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $150 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $56 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $149 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $155 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $199 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $199 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $150 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $184 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 20 $78 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 20 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $150 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $146 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 39¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $150 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $150 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $150 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 50¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $47 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $148 22h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $150 23h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 50¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $84 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $54 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 50¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $150 43h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 52¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 30¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $150 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $200 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $68 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 24? SELL No 96¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,333.14 · official $1,333.10 (match) · 3500 history records