Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14fe…e0fd sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$921 (-2%) realized −$896 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%38W / 46L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$462per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$562est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,161
7 days−$1,161
14 days−$1,161
30 days−$1,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,500
crypto 11% −$2,686
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -30.9% -37.5% 33% 33% -30.0%
≤30d 12 -30.9% -37.5% 33% 33% -30.0%
≤90d 84 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 45% -12.2%
all 84 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 45% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 45% -12.2%
10% -24.2% 45% -20.6%
15% -31.5% 45% -28.3%
20% -38.2% 45% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$700) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$471 vs −$424 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$1,348
Realized−$896
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses38 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$562
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage63d
Avg bet$462
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $470 $465 −$5 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $450 $445 −$5 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $453 $438 −$15 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $915 +$1,085 +119%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $450 −$450 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $458 −$450 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $457 +$521 +114%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $458 −$450 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $303 −$300 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $459 −$451 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $469 −$463 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $456 −$450 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $254 +$246 +97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $250 +$250 +100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $254 −$250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 20 $286 −$286 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 20 $647 −$647 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 20 $773 −$749 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 20 $517 +$430 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 20 $286 −$275 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 20 $216 −$205 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 20 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 20 $157 −$150 -96%
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 104.5 May 12 $406 +$378 +93%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 May 12 $360 +$540 +150%
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) May 12 $406 −$400 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5 May 12 $406 −$400 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 12 $450 −$450 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 May 01 $355 +$345 +97%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) May 01 $355 +$374 +105%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 01 $355 +$344 +97%
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) May 01 $711 +$746 +105%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Apr 30 $355 −$350 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Apr 30 $355 +$331 +93%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Apr 30 $355 +$359 +101%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Apr 30 $355 −$350 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Apr 29 $355 −$350 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 29 $355 −$355 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-10.5) Apr 29 $355 −$355 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Apr 29 $355 +$359 +101%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 Apr 29 $355 +$318 +90%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Apr 29 $355 +$343 +96%
1H Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Apr 29 $350 +$350 +100%
76ers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 109.5 Apr 29 $354 +$346 +98%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Apr 29 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 29 $73 +$66 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 29 $268 −$268 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 29 $74 −$74 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Apr 29 $355 −$350 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Apr 28 $700 −$700 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 224.5 Apr 28 $700 +$679 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $461 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $477 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $457 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $915 18h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $450 20h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $458 22h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $458 23h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $303 24h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $459 24h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $105 24h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $121 24h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $243 24h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $457 24h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 24h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $253 34h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $250 40h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $254 40h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $254 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $7 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,347.96 · official $1,347.96 (match) · 490 history records