Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

14 0x14fa…1dc8 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$6 (-7%) realized +$43 · open −$49

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-2.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+7.3%	-2.9%	50%	50%	+43.7%
≤30d	2	+7.3%	-2.9%	50%	50%	+43.7%
≤90d	2	+7.3%	-2.9%	50%	50%	+43.7%
all	2	+7.3%	-2.9%	50%	50%	+43.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.9%	50%	+43.7%
10%	-12.2%	50%	+30.0%
15%	-20.7%	50%	+17.4%
20%	-28.5%	50%	+5.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +59% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$5 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$43

Unrealized−$49

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner	Natus Vincere	55¢	0¢	$49	$0	−$49 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner	Jun 23	$14	+$16	+115%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner	BUY Natus Vincere	55¢	$50	2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner	SELL Nigma Galaxy	45¢	$19	2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner	SELL Nigma Galaxy	100¢	$31	2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner	BUY Nigma Galaxy	46¢	$20	2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner	BUY Nigma Galaxy	43¢	$4	3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner	BUY Enjoy	13¢	$5	4h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner	BUY Nigma Galaxy	47¢	$10	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 7 history records