Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:12:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14f9…b1cb crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$203 (-22%) realized −$208 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%14W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$105
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$169
world 3% −$13
politics 2% −$16
culture 1% −$11
sports 1% −$10
other 0% −$2
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +68.7% +52.6% 100% 100% +47.2%
≤30d 2 +68.7% +52.6% 100% 100% +47.2%
≤90d 52 -46.3% -51.5% 25% 19% -30.1%
all 59 -43.3% -48.7% 24% 19% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 19% -32.1%
10% -53.6% 19% -38.6%
15% -58.1% 15% -44.5%
20% -62.2% 14% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$208
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage118d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+33%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $105 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $63 +$59 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 23 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 15 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 14 $102 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $11 +$39 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 08 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 08 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 08 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 30 $5 +$5 +105%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Apr 30 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 30 $33 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 29 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 29 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 28 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 28 $6 +$8 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 15 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 15 $25 +$37 +146%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL No 77¢ $151 1h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 7h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 52¢ $14 8h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 52¢ $50 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 52¢ $20 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 52¢ $4 9h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 52¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $63 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $12 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $16 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $17 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 42d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their BUY No 0¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.09 · official $23.09 (match) · 112 history records