Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14f8…7fd1 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+6%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$57
other 34% −$114
crypto 22% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +15.6% +4.6% 44% 44% -14.4%
≤30d 9 +15.6% +4.6% 44% 44% -14.4%
≤90d 9 +15.6% +4.6% 44% 44% -14.4%
all 9 +15.6% +4.6% 44% 44% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 44% -14.4%
10% -5.4% 44% -22.6%
15% -14.6% 44% -30.1%
20% -22.9% 44% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$53 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$35 +68%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 +$67 +188%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$89 +291%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $41 42m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $15 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $36 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $123 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both BUY 24¢ $51 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $36 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $31 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.63 · official $209.63 (match) · 18 history records