Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x14f7…232c
crypto · 442 markets active 3h ago
1.5score
+$27,085 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27,118 · open −$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$127
Realized+$27,118
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses113 / 327
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)440 / 442
Avg bet$257
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 2 History 440 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$3,449
14 days−$6,479
30 days−$14,435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $60 $3 −$57 (-95%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1,081 $0 −$1,081 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $510 $0 −$510 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $295 $0 −$295 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? No 5¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $215 $0 −$215 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-08? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $654 $0 −$654 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $344 $0 −$344 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 8? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $399 $0 −$399 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $340 $0 −$340 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $469 $0 −$469 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$23 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $696 −$654 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $138 −$130 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $160 +$136 +85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $314 −$295 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $499 −$469 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $195 −$183 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $747 −$700 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6AM ET Jun 08 $133 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 08 $157 −$148 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $178 −$166 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $661 −$630 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2AM ET Jun 05 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $106 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $107 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $107 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $50 −$47 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $544 −$510 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6AM ET Jun 04 $29 −$27 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $528 −$500 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? May 31 $747 −$700 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7PM ET May 31 $240 −$225 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 31 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $107 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 29 $523 −$490 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $380 −$360 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,254 −$1,081 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2AM ET May 29 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6PM ET May 28 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET May 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 28 $363 −$340 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 28 $214 −$200 -94%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 19 $286 −$275 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 19 $320 −$300 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 19 $2,220 −$2,080 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $160 −$150 -94%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 18 $221 −$210 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $534 −$500 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 17 $515 −$482 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 17 $212 −$200 -94%
Will AS Roma vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% +$8,318
other 14% +$5,355
sports 9% −$2,184
world 6% +$15,597
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $25 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $64 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 6¢ $160 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 4¢ $314 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $53 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 9¢ $532 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 8¢ $140 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $15 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 13¢ $265 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $63 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 4¢ $213 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -78.5% -80.5% 13% 13% -92.1%
≤30d 70 -74.7% -77.1% 13% 9% -88.1%
≤90d 233 -75.9% -78.2% 11% 10% -87.4%
all 440 -12.6% -20.9% 26% 24% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 24% +3.0%
10% -28.5% 22% -6.9%
15% -35.4% 20% -15.9%
20% -41.7% 18% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.63 · official $126.63 (match) · 1185 history records