Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:10:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x14f6…79b9 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$349 (+26%) realized +$223 · open +$126
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$356
14 days+$342
30 days+$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$108
sports 22% +$334
crypto 4% +$36
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +2.9% -6.9% 47% 40% +17.6%
≤30d 33 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 36% +16.3%
≤90d 33 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 36% +16.3%
all 33 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 36% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 36% +16.3%
10% -23.4% 36% +5.2%
15% -30.8% 36% -5.0%
20% -37.6% 33% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$21 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$223
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage8d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 54¢ 100¢ $150 $276 +$126 (+84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 +$1 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $29 −$28 -97%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $81 +$72 +88%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 23 $4 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $141 +$71 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $128 +$167 +131%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 21 $29 +$113 +388%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? Jun 21 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $87 +$41 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$25 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$16 +101%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $11 +$9 +81%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$3 -21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +262%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $53 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $29 3h
Ghana to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $51 16h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $51 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $5 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 24h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 44¢ $31 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 25h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $51 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 2d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $24 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 20¢ $29 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 2d
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes $5 2d
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes $12 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.50 · official $275.50 (match) · 65 history records