Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

14 0x14f4…dc6b other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$94 (+32%) realized +$108 · open −$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+19.9%	+8.5%	80%	80%	+24.0%
≤30d	5	+19.9%	+8.5%	80%	80%	+24.0%
≤90d	5	+19.9%	+8.5%	80%	80%	+24.0%
all	5	+19.9%	+8.5%	80%	80%	+24.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.5%	80%	+24.0%
10%	-1.9%	80%	+12.1%
15%	-11.4%	80%	+1.3%
20%	-20.1%	20%	-8.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×5.88 per $1 lost it wins $5.88

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$36

Realized+$108

Unrealized−$14

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage5d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	55¢	40¢	$50	$36	−$14 (-27%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$51	+$26	+52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$51	+$25	+50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$20	−$19	-93%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$25	+$11	+42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$100	+$48	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	55¢	$51	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$76	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	5¢	$1	4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	70¢	$25	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$100	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.30 · official $38.38 · 11 history records