Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
14 0x14f4…7098 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$591 (+8%) realized +$591 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate65%39W / 21L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$4
crypto 35% +$593
other 23% −$1
economics 3% $0
tech 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
all 60 -2.5% -11.8% 65% 3% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -2.7%
10% -20.3% 2% -12.0%
15% -28.0% 2% -20.5%
20% -35.0% 2% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×12.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.93 per $1 lost it wins $23.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$591
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses39 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage580d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 24 $31 +$1 +2%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting May 23 $31 +$1 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? Mar 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k? Feb 23 $31 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $92,000 on November 13? Nov 23 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET Nov 10 $608 +$608 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 8? Nov 10 $1,850 +$2 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? Nov 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Nov 07 $5 $0 +3%
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? Nov 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $580 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Oct 09 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on July 14? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 24 $966 −$2 -0%
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 01 $1 $0 +8%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,750 by January 31? Feb 01 $9 +$2 +18%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +2%
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +1%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +1%
'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office? Dec 29 $1 $0 +9%
Will RFK Jr. get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will RFK Jr. win <1% of the popular vote? Dec 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jill Stein get >1% of the popular vote? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin? Dec 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will another party win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary el Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump win Alabama by 30+ points? Dec 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 28 $5 $0 -0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Nov 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Nov 28 $2 $0 -17%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Nov 21 $377 $0 -0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 21 $371 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 1h
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 98¢ $31 32d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting BUY Yes 98¢ $31 62d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 105d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $10 120d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $4 120d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $2 120d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $1 120d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $1 120d
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 165d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 99¢ $30 182d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 212d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $92,000 on November 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 225d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $608 228d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,850 228d
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $5 246d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 246d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? BUY No 99¢ $5 246d
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $5 246d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $580 257d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $580 257d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $569 257d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $570 257d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? BUY No 98¢ $12 271d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 99¢ $12 306d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.95 · official $30.95 (match) · 143 history records