Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14f4…82eb sports 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$166 (-11%) realized −$138 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%37W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$31
14 days−$176
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$61
sports 35% −$81
crypto 22% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -7.4% -16.3% 47% 47% -12.7%
≤30d 70 -16.1% -24.1% 53% 37% -21.2%
≤90d 70 -16.1% -24.1% 53% 37% -21.2%
all 70 -16.1% -24.1% 53% 37% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 37% -21.2%
10% -31.4% 29% -28.7%
15% -38.0% 26% -35.6%
20% -44.1% 24% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$138
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses37 / 33
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage11d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Yes 46¢ 48¢ $130 $134 +$4 (+3%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch Dane Sweeny 12¢ 22¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+80%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Yunchaokete Bu 27¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu Jun 24 $41 −$10 -24%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $20 +$19 +93%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Remy Bertola vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 24 $10 +$17 +167%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris Jun 24 $10 +$5 +47%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $20 +$16 +80%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $81 −$80 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$28 +136%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $10 +$7 +71%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $106 +$20 +19%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $10 +$10 +99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw Jun 22 $10 +$12 +117%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $10 +$9 +91%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $41 −$40 -99%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Gustavo Heide Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $8 +$12 +141%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $20 +$19 +94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $120 +$22 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$14 +34%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $41 +$31 +75%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $10 +$25 +248%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $10 +$5 +51%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $10 +$9 +89%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu SELL Kaitlin Quevedo 19¢ $31 3m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 24¢ $41 26m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch BUY Dane Sweeny 12¢ $10 29m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 27¢ $41 50m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 58¢ $39 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Remy Bertola vs Jurij Rodionov SELL Remy Bertola 39¢ $27 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou BUY Stefano Travaglia 10¢ $10 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 29¢ $20 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Anna Kalinskaya 15¢ $10 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris SELL Zsombor Piros 32¢ $15 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris BUY Zsombor Piros 21¢ $10 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Remy Bertola vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Remy Bertola 14¢ $10 3h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $132 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina SELL Elina Svitolina 70¢ $37 20h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 38¢ $20 22h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $81 24h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $48 38h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 99¢ $17 41h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 57¢ $10 41h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $20 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $126 44h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Facundo Acosta 10¢ $21 47h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can BUY Francisco Comesana 23¢ $20 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Solana Sierra 23¢ $20 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Solana Sierra 11¢ $10 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw SELL Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 10¢ $22 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo $10 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic BUY Mark Lajal 13¢ $10 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 13¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $106 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.36 · official $152.36 (match) · 128 history records