Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x14f4…b745
sports · 23 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$41 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage294d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 0 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $147 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $55 +$2 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 +$2 +68%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $202 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $69 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 25 $25 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $4 +$2 +64%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $25 +$38 +150%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $2 $0 +17%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $2 $0 -4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 23 $13 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 75% +$4
other 9% +$37
politics 7% $0
sports 6% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $29 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $42 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $6 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $27 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $27 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $23 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 71¢ $56 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $55 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $59 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $3 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $45 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $24 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $45 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $27 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $46 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $61 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.3% +3.4% 60% 20% -8.6%
≤30d 6 +11.9% +1.3% 50% 17% -8.7%
≤90d 6 +11.9% +1.3% 50% 17% -8.7%
all 23 +12.1% +1.4% 43% 17% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 17% -4.0%
10% -8.3% 13% -13.2%
15% -17.1% 13% -21.6%
20% -25.3% 13% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records