Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
14 0x14f3…0796 crypto 872 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$7,866 (-24%) realized −$8,227 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%388W / 641L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day129.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,402
7 days−$6,699
14 days−$6,670
30 days−$8,227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$825
sports 1% −$119
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 -86.9% -88.2% 7% 7% -45.5%
≤30d 1029 -34.0% -40.3% 38% 36% -29.2%
≤90d 1029 -34.0% -40.3% 38% 36% -29.2%
all 1029 -34.0% -40.3% 38% 36% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.3% 36% -29.2%
10% ← realistic here -46.0% 31% -36.0%
15% -51.2% 28% -42.2%
20% -56.0% 23% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$30 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$8,227
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses388 / 641
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1029 / 872
History coverage24d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day129.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1029 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? No 71¢ 47¢ $43 $29 −$15 (-34%)
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Toronto Marlies 66¢ 55¢ $32 $26 −$6 (-17%)
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Yes 34¢ 53¢ $14 $22 +$8 (+56%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Under 54¢ 100¢ $8 $14 +$7 (+85%)
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? No 87¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Chicago Wolves 64¢ 46¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $75 −$63 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $141 −$141 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$7 -469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$6 -642%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$9 -184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 87¢ $4 4m
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 70¢ $13 20m
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 70¢ $4 20m
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $22 20m
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 70¢ $5 20m
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 25m
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 25m
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Toronto Marlies 68¢ $15 1h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Toronto Marlies 68¢ $15 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $2 1h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Toronto Marlies 45¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 15¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $2 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 28¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $27 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 1h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Chicago Wolves 64¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $14 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.63 · official $99.63 (match) · 3500 history records