Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
14 0x14ee…04cb other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 385d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$498 (-27%) realized −$475 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$498
other 22% −$97
sports 14% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.2% -13.4% 67% 67% +11.5%
≤30d 3 -4.2% -13.4% 67% 67% +11.5%
≤90d 3 -4.2% -13.4% 67% 67% +11.5%
all 11 -7.6% -16.4% 64% 36% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 36% -36.6%
10% -24.4% 27% -42.7%
15% -31.7% 27% -48.2%
20% -38.4% 9% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$152 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$475
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage385d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 69¢ 38¢ $35 $20 −$15 (-44%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 01 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%? Jun 01 $100 −$90 -90%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $773 −$509 -66%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $157 +$23 +15%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 31 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $99 +$58 +59%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? May 29 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 20m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $82 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 32h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 33h
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 380d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 95¢ $306 380d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 380d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 23¢ $264 380d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 15¢ $180 380d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 382d
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect SELL Yes 94¢ $103 382d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $157 382d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 5¢ $157 382d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 64¢ $273 383d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL Yes 83¢ $21 383d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 70¢ $200 383d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 384d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 384d
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect BUY Yes 91¢ $100 384d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 384d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $99 384d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 384d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 384d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 384d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.00 · official $181.00 (match) · 36 history records