Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14ec…c0e0 crypto 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$418 (-5%) realized −$380 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%66W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$885now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days+$1
14 days+$43
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$281
other 24% +$24
finance 6% +$62
world 4% −$313
politics 4% −$57
economics 1% −$83
sports 0% +$96
tech 0% +$9
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 50% -9.5%
≤30d 20 +9.3% -1.1% 55% 55% -2.3%
≤90d 108 -20.8% -28.3% 48% 39% -14.1%
all 145 -20.5% -28.0% 46% 38% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 38% -14.8%
10% -34.9% 32% -22.9%
15% -41.2% 26% -30.4%
20% -47.0% 22% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$34 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$885
Realized−$380
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses66 / 79
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)145 / 155
History coverage97d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $500 $603 +$103 (+21%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 59¢ 61¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $100 $34 −$66 (-66%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 55¢ 14¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 62¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$35 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $106 −$105 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$106 +344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$27 +26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$231 +226%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 31 $79 +$81 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 20 $203 +$10 +5%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 14 $107 −$92 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 14 $513 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 03 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 29 $50 −$37 -73%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 29 $40 −$8 -21%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 27 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 27 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +20%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 12 $100 −$88 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 12 $400 +$234 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 12 $100 +$189 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 12 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Apr 12 $110 −$15 -14%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 12 $100 −$83 -83%
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Apr 12 $40 +$9 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Apr 08 $10 +$4 +37%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 06 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 06 $50 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 06 $30 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 20h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $128 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $122 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $884.82 · official $884.82 (match) · 467 history records