Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
14 0x14eb…2e34 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24,226 (+23%) realized +$21,456 · open +$2,770
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$2,140per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1,101est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$17,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,286
7 days+$23,769
14 days+$27,366
30 days+$27,378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$6,473
sports 50% +$24,126
world 0% −$450
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +4.5% -5.4% 39% 36% +16.8%
≤30d 42 +15.4% +4.4% 45% 43% +19.8%
≤90d 42 +15.4% +4.4% 45% 43% +19.8%
all 42 +15.4% +4.4% 45% 43% +19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.4% 43% +19.8%
10% ← realistic here -5.6% 40% +8.3%
15% -14.7% 40% -2.2%
20% -23.0% 33% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$3,033) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +49% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,683 vs −$1,026 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$17,154
Realized+$21,456
Unrealized+$2,770
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,101
Open positions7
Markets (closed)42 / 49
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2,140
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $3,684 $4,501 +$817 (+22%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 65¢ 76¢ $3,100 $3,643 +$543 (+18%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 90¢ $2,600 $3,274 +$674 (+26%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 39¢ $2,000 $2,351 +$351 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $1,000 $1,325 +$325 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,000 $1,118 +$118 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,000 $942 −$58 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,816 +$5,330 +140%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11,053 +$902 +8%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4,608 −$1,588 -34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,025 −$389 -19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,523 −$3,500 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5,048 −$5,000 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,647 −$2,600 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,033 +$1,811 +60%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,121 +$2,021 +180%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,223 +$1,146 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,046 +$2,200 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,530 +$2,903 +190%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5,568 +$1,049 +19%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $514 −$500 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $513 −$500 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,051 +$2,525 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $505 −$505 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $256 −$256 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 16 $358 −$358 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 16 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Jun 16 $450 −$450 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 16 $2,037 −$2,037 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,751 −$2,751 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,531 −$158 -10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,025 −$138 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,047 +$7,476 +365%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $4,193 −$94 -2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $813 +$963 +118%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $3,705 +$3,356 +91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6,590 +$9,874 +150%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,064 +$5,775 +543%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $343 +$347 +101%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $103 −$38 -37%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,631 +$2,107 +129%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $682 +$1,182 +173%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $10 +$7 +73%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3,032 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2,040 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,522 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 49¢ $1,636 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $543 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,130 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,537 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,169 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2,045 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 83¢ $5,407 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $11,053 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,025 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $3,816 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $3,523 9h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 33¢ $1,020 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5,048 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2,647 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2,223 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1,121 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 62¢ $4,280 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3,038 26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,756 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 28h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $308 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,153.96 · official $17,153.96 (match) · 137 history records