Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14e5…4466 other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,468 (+1%) realized +$1,469 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%27W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1,266per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$12
14 days+$141
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$231
politics 31% −$40
sports 9% +$1,722
economics 5% −$10
culture 3% −$6
world 2% −$6
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +7.4% -2.9% 15% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 95 +3.6% -6.3% 8% 4% -8.6%
all 146 +1.3% -8.4% 18% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 12% -8.8%
10% -17.1% 12% -17.5%
15% -25.2% 10% -25.5%
20% -32.5% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,684) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$9 · ×10.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,356
Realized+$1,469
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses27 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,266
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,356 $1,356 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,235 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,679 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4,343 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,244 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $379 +$5 +1%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 10 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,953 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,786 −$6 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,282 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $69 +$115 +165%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $75 +$60 +79%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,281 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5,362 −$6 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $4,446 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $512 $0 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,799 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,992 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $3,255 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,957 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,838 −$3 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $71 +$72 +101%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,142 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $608 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,454 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $2,450 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,658 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,551 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $2,413 −$3 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,295 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $1,199 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,356 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,234 41h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,235 43h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,316 43h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,318 45h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,225 45h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,226 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,145 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,146 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,242 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,244 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $379 4d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $1,292 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $1,294 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $950 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $951 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,072 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,073 8d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,174 8d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,175 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,304 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,306 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,051 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,052 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,228 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,230 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,002 10d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 37¢ $69 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $75 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,355.60 · official $1,355.60 (match) · 474 history records