Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
14 0x14e4…3e2b other 506 markets active 14h ago coverage 123d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$82,565 (-9%) realized −$82,891 · open +$326
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate76%383W / 122L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,805per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$1,452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,544
7 days−$6,465
14 days−$6,048
30 days−$10,661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$103,795
sports 14% +$24,495
crypto 2% −$2,116
world 1% +$1,409
finance 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -19.6% -27.3% 59% 30% -32.2%
≤30d 87 -10.9% -19.4% 68% 37% -28.3%
≤90d 217 -7.3% -16.1% 74% 47% -15.1%
all 505 +1.0% -8.6% 76% 48% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 48% -17.6%
10% -17.3% 26% -25.5%
15% ← realistic here -25.3% 13% -32.7%
20% -32.7% 6% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$871) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$396 vs −$1,901 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,452
Realized−$82,891
Unrealized+$326
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses383 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions1
Markets (closed)505 / 506
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$1,805
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 99¢ $1,126 $1,452 +$326 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,460 +$2,980 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $958 +$731 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $68 +$5 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $64 +$24 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,104 −$1,016 -92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $511 −$511 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7,122 −$7,122 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,275 −$981 -77%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $88 +$3 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $18 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,519 +$157 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $104 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $979 +$58 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $184 +$16 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $636 +$164 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $506 +$288 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $952 −$10 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $427 −$427 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $111 +$24 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $165 −$165 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $191 −$191 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $210 −$210 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $165 +$72 +44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $201 +$46 +23%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $96 +$43 +45%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $481 +$30 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $81 +$30 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $896 +$391 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,018 +$1,546 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $251 +$24 +10%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $78 +$22 +29%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $73 +$7 +10%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $844 +$44 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,132 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $958 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5,460 46h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $73 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $106 46h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY No 93¢ $68 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $64 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $202 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 97¢ $88 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $80 2d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $251 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $88 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $7,122 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $10 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $16 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,452.38 · official $1,452.38 (match) · 3500 history records