Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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14 0x14e2…282f crypto 1307 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$154 (-0%) realized +$193 · open −$347
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate68%880W / 421L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$10,278
politics 4% +$6,038
world 0% −$30
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -38.3% -44.2% 50% 50% -16.8%
≤30d 73 -66.7% -69.9% 14% 12% -69.0%
≤90d 573 -20.0% -27.7% 43% 24% -15.0%
all 1301 -9.9% -18.5% 68% 23% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 23% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 12% -22.8%
15% -33.4% 9% -30.3%
20% -39.9% 8% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$100 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$1,380
Realized+$193
Unrealized−$347
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses880 / 421
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1301 / 1307
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $640 $859 +$219 (+34%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $450 $205 −$245 (-54%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $200 $127 −$73 (-36%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? No 8¢ 3¢ $226 $76 −$150 (-66%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? No 2¢ 1¢ $127 $60 −$67 (-53%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 19? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $85 $53 −$32 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $1,532 +$329 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $471 +$119 +25%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $209 −$196 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $498 −$468 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 12? Jun 12 $449 −$422 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 11? Jun 11 $79 −$74 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? Jun 09 $99 −$93 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 09 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 09 $257 −$257 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 09 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 09 $1,394 −$1,394 -100%
Will Solana dip to $50 June 1-7? Jun 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $23 −$21 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 08 $160 −$137 -86%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$3 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 8? Jun 08 $499 −$471 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 8? Jun 08 $318 −$300 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 08 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? Jun 07 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 on June 6? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 6? Jun 07 $349 −$349 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? Jun 07 $98 +$84 +85%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 4? Jun 06 $826 −$826 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 4? Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 5? Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 5? Jun 06 $266 −$266 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $53 +$75 +141%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 5? Jun 05 $451 +$1,139 +253%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 05 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 05 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 05 $533 −$533 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 3? Jun 04 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 3? Jun 04 $95 +$315 +332%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $425 −$155 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $269 −$157 -58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $108 −$54 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27? Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 17? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 31? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $74 53m
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $212 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $212 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $42 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $211 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $32 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $264 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? BUY No 6¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? BUY No 7¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? BUY No 7¢ $48 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $91 3h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $106 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $53 4h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 4h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $139 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? BUY No 8¢ $138 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 43¢ $1,861 9h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? SELL Down 45¢ $591 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 30¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 31¢ $532 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 30¢ $472 18h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 33¢ $471 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 36¢ $522 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $32 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $32 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? BUY No 2¢ $72 21h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $209 21h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $197 4d
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $106 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,380.49 · official $1,380.79 (match) · 3500 history records