Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x14e0…6829 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,813 (+10%) realized +$2,850 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$595per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$115
14 days−$275
30 days−$2,519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$954
world 24% +$1,847
culture 8% +$221
sports 6% −$511
crypto 2% +$59
politics 1% −$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -56.3% -60.5% 0% 0% -60.5%
≤30d 5 -91.3% -92.1% 0% 0% -96.9%
≤90d 23 -33.5% -39.8% 26% 26% +5.5%
all 47 -25.6% -32.7% 40% 38% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 38% -2.0%
10% -39.2% 36% -11.3%
15% -45.0% 23% -19.9%
20% -50.4% 19% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$640) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$571 vs −$303 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$2,850
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage147d
Avg bet$595
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $158 $120 −$37 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $204 −$115 -56%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $161 −$160 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,665 −$1,635 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $411 −$401 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $214 −$208 -97%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $155 +$245 +158%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,482 −$1,449 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 06 $101 −$98 -97%
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $119 −$117 -98%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $113 −$111 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $131 −$128 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $3,938 +$5,542 +141%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $163 −$149 -92%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $3,786 −$1,377 -36%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Apr 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 08 $330 +$649 +197%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $1,500 +$1,287 +86%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $1,180 −$34 -3%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $100 −$59 -59%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Apr 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $100 +$26 +26%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $2,300 +$1,586 +69%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 19 $300 −$235 -78%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 16 $100 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 16 $11 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 16 $50 +$15 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 16 $50 +$34 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 16 $50 +$26 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 16 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 15 $50 +$41 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 15 $50 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 15 $50 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 15 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 10 $132 −$115 -88%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? Mar 10 $410 −$326 -80%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 06 $640 +$193 +30%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $68 −$68 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Mar 01 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Mar 01 $234 −$234 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $1,001 +$407 +41%
Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRA Feb 02 $2,307 +$221 +10%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $3,204 +$522 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 16¢ $89 50m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $160 1h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $204 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $161 9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,665 23d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 21¢ $411 23d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC $214 23d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 100¢ $400 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $518 47d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 11¢ $101 47d
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 39¢ $119 47d
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 37¢ $113 47d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 38¢ $155 47d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 32¢ $131 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $965 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,480 55d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 41¢ $63 55d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 41¢ $3,004 55d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $871 55d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes $14 69d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $82 69d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $82 69d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $2,410 69d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $86 69d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $3,700 69d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) SELL Paris Saint-Germain FC 100¢ $979 75d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,787 75d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,500 75d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 33¢ $330 75d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 17¢ $200 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.48 · official $120.48 (match) · 122 history records